Will it work as an issue?
Now it’s abundantly clear that any constitutional amendment for gay marriage will not take place this year and may not ever pass, given the high threshold necessary to achieve such legislation. Three-quarters of the states would have to ratify it, as well as two-thirds of the members of Congress. That certainly is a tall order for the supporters of this ban, but for the Bushes, this is immaterial, since it seems they see it as a valuable “wedge” issue to exploit. Thus the fact that it won’t pass doesn’t mean as much as the fact that their public support for it will stir up controversy and open up a new and heated front in the culture wars. But there is a question of how effective an issue it will be for the Republicans. While majorities of both Republicans and Democrats oppose gay marriage, the country itself is split on whether or not there should be an amendment to ban it. Many moderates are against gay marriage but they certainly don’t want to be unnecessarily oppressive toward gays and seem apprehensive about any legislation that they see as overly discriminatory. In addition, gay marriage is way down the list of things that are important to voters, lagging way behind the economy and terrorism in terms of importance to the American people. And many conservatives in the Republican party are uncomfortable with even the very idea of the federal government imposing its views and its will on the states.